What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions. What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions When the dollar rises to 100

Nowadays one can increasingly hear talk about a dollar will cost 100 rubles. I think that there is every reason to believe that in the near future we will see three-digit quotes for the ruble to dollar exchange rate. In today's post I want to talk a little about will a dollar cost 100 rubles?, and how such a course will affect the economy of the country, its subjects and each individual person or family.

Will a dollar cost 100 rubles?

My answer to this question is: more likely yes than no. I recently published my own, in which I described in sufficient detail all the factors influencing the exchange rate of the Russian currency. For those who haven’t read it yet, I recommend that you read it, so that you don’t just watch rates and search on the Internet to see who is predicting what quotes, but understand why this happens and what caused the fall of the ruble.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that now, at the beginning of 2016, the ruble exchange rate has already reached those levels where nothing is holding it back: there are no strong technical resistance levels above 70-71, the so-called “free fall zone”, the movement in which will be faster than it was before. Therefore, I have every reason to believe that soon the dollar will cost 100 rubles - there is not much left to reach this mark.

However, of course, I won’t say with a 100% guarantee that this will happen. Because some new fundamental factors can always arise that will slow down the fall of the ruble, cause a temporary rollback, or even lead to a change in the general trend: this is a market, and anything can happen here.

General conclusion. Will a dollar cost 100 rubles? The likelihood of such a development of events is very high. And if no new strong fundamental factors appear, and the old ones continue to operate, we may see such quotes quite soon.

What will happen when the dollar costs 100 rubles?

Now let's think about the impact such a dollar exchange rate will have on the country's economy, its financial system and citizens. What will happen if the dollar becomes 100 rubles?

A country's economy. The Russian economy is predominantly resource-based: a significant portion of budget revenues comes from the sale of oil and other resources, raw materials and processed products. In this regard, the higher the dollar exchange rate, the better for the economy: after all, raw materials are exported for foreign currency, mainly for the dollar, and in terms of rubles, more money will flow into the budget.

However, this is only one side of the coin. On the other hand, all these exporters are very dependent on imports: they work on imported equipment, use some imported spare parts, components necessary for the extraction of raw materials, their processing and production of finished products. When a dollar costs 100 rubles, they will also be forced to buy all this at a much higher price, and the cost of their products will increase significantly. And against this background, they may lose in competition to other countries that supply similar products to world markets, in which such a collapse of the national currency does not occur.

Financial and banking system of the country. A very important negative point is the following: if a dollar costs 100 rubles, the state budget will not change radically. Because in Russia there are simply no sources of income that could increase the revenue side of the budget, and due to this, accordingly, the expenditure side. That is, its revenue and expenditure parts in ruble equivalent will remain approximately the same, but in dollar equivalent this will mean a significant reduction in the assets and liabilities of the state.

Simply put, if a dollar costs 100 rubles, the financial condition of the state will deteriorate significantly. In comparison with the mark of 70 rubles - almost half, and in comparison with the mark of 35 rubles - 3 times.

And from this, all items of government spending will suffer to approximately the same extent, including salaries, pensions and other payments that are so important to many. In rubles they will remain the same, but the real value, the purchasing power of these rubles will be reduced significantly. I’ll go into more detail on this a little further.

The banking system will also face very serious problems when the dollar becomes 100 rubles. Firstly, massive loan defaults will begin. And not only currency ones (them – first of all), but also ruble ones. After all, the financial condition of borrowers will deteriorate greatly due to devaluation and inflation, and they simply will really have nothing to cover their debts with. Taking into account the fact that the level of debt among the population is very high, this could result in a serious collapse of the banking system.

How does the bank work? Roughly speaking, it accepts money from savers and lends it to borrowers. If borrowers do not repay their loans, the bank has nothing to pay the depositors with. In addition, for problem assets it is necessary to transfer large reserves to the Central Bank. In this situation, banks will need very serious additional capitalization to continue their activities, and only those banks whose shareholders are able and willing to provide it will survive.

But all this is just a superficial and ideal idea of ​​the bank’s work. In Russian realities, I think it is no secret to anyone that many banks conduct very dubious activities, are engaged in money laundering and the transfer of dubious capital abroad. Actually, this is evidenced by the officially announced reasons for the closure of most banks, and almost 100 of them were closed last year alone. If the dollar exchange rate is 100 rubles, such banks certainly will not survive, they simply will not be interested.

And this, in turn, will cause a new and serious problem. The state has obligations to depositors of closed banks, but, as far as I know, there is no money for such payments (DIA receives loans to return deposits of bankrupt banks). Imagine what will happen if another 100, 200, 300 banks close, among which there will be large ones and, perhaps, the largest ones? Where can the state get so much money for compensation payments? All this casts huge doubts in such a situation. Getting them now will definitely not be as easy as before.

In Russia, oddly enough, the level of public confidence in the national currency continues to remain quite high, although it is declining. But when the dollar costs 100 rubles, one must assume that there will be little left of this trust. People will rush to terminate ruble deposits ahead of schedule and buy dollars en masse, and this will further shake the financial and banking system and further collapse the ruble exchange rate.

In such a situation, it is very logical to expect some tough administrative measures from the Central Bank. For example, they may prohibit, they may significantly limit the sale of foreign currency to one person, payments from foreign currency accounts may be forced to be converted into rubles, they may introduce some taxes on the purchase of foreign currency, or something else like that. Similar measures have already been introduced more than once in many neighboring countries, and now, it seems to me, their introduction is very likely in Russia.

Personal finance of the population.

Well, in conclusion, let’s look at the most pressing question: how will the population suffer if the dollar costs 100 rubles?

The short, direct and honest answer is that the population will become even poorer.

I also wrote there that inflation and devaluation are inextricably linked with each other and always “walk side by side.” That is, if a dollar costs 100 rubles, prices for all goods and services will definitely and definitely rise. Only for some - more, for some - less. It is clear that imported goods will rise in price by approximately the same amount as the ruble becomes cheaper, goods produced within the country using imported raw materials and equipment will be slightly lower, 100% domestic goods will be even lower, but will also rise in price.

But the incomes of most people will not rise. First of all, those who live on salaries and pensions, and this is the majority. Why? Because the budget, as I wrote above, will not have funds to increase government payments, and business entities will also not be able to raise the salaries of their employees, since they themselves will be in a very poor state; rather, even they can reduce them.

Many of those who have debts and loans will finally lose the ability to repay them. Someone will lose their job because not all businesses will be able to survive such a financial situation. , which we are all already observing, will worsen even more.

People will become the link in the overall system that will suffer from devaluation more than others. Because they will be affected by the general problems of the state, and the problems of banks, and the problems of enterprises, and, on top of everything else, their personal financial problems.

What to do, how to protect yourself and your finances? Of course, sitting and hoping “maybe it will blow me away” is a dead-end option. You need to take care in advance to protect your personal financial condition as much as possible, so that even if the dollar becomes 100 rubles, this will affect you specifically with minimal losses or no losses at all. And this is quite possible if you do it. How best to act in such situations can be read, for example, in the articles:

This article probably turned out to be, to put it mildly, pessimistic. But... In my opinion, it is much more correct to see the threat, acknowledge its presence and prepare for it, than to live in groundless hopes that “everything will be fine.” This forecast seems very realistic to me, and I personally am ready for the situation to develop according to this scenario, which is what I wish for each of you.

100 rubles per dollar: what next?

Well, in conclusion, a few words about what will happen to the ruble exchange rate after it reaches 100 rubles per dollar. Further, very large jumps may be observed: on the day, quotes will change significantly more than is happening now. The rate can “jump” significantly above the 100 mark.

However, let's add a little optimism, this situation is unlikely to last forever. The economy is cyclical, recession and bottom are always followed by recovery. Since the ruble is a clearly expressed commodity currency, which is completely dependent on oil prices, one must assume that when these prices begin to rise, this will also be reflected in the growth of the ruble. There are no prerequisites for this yet, but they will certainly appear in the future.

Therefore, the rate of 100 rubles per dollar will not necessarily remain this way forever: in the future it may decrease, but, most likely, we will never see the levels at which it was a couple of years ago.

I expressed to you my opinion about whether a dollar will cost 100 rubles, and what this could lead to. I advise you to compare it with your own vision of the situation and draw conclusions. I will be glad to hear your opinion in the comments or on the site forum. See you again at !

The beginning of this year was quite active on the stock exchange. And even those who were not connected with it in any way could watch and read how the dollar was growing rapidly. They showed queues at exchange offices and reports from exchange “fields”, urging people not to worry and convincing them that this situation was normal and that they had complete control over it. But in fact, dollar-ruble futures have increased by 13 rubles this year. This cannot but raise questions and concerns: will growth continue and by how much?

Let's figure it out.

The dollar exchange rate directly depends on oil prices. The higher the oil price, the lower the dollar exchange rate and vice versa. In order to guess what will happen to the dollar, it would be nice to know what might happen to oil. In such a matter we can only rely on facts.

As you can see, oil in the 90s was in the range of $10-25 per barrel. And the price of $10 per barrel is a historical minimum.

This year, oil literally collapsed from $38 to $27 per barrel, which actually led to such a rise in the dollar. What you should pay attention to: 01/21/2016 there was a correction, but the hourly maximum of $32.5 per barrel was not overcome, until this happens it is premature to talk about growth; the price often tends to test “round” numbers and historical lows and highs, so the decline in oil prices has every reason. If this happens, then the dollar will cost more than 100 rubles.

This is a daily chart for dollar-ruble futures. It looks like a mirror image of oil. The historical maximum was at 90,000, this year, even taking into account the increased volatility, it has not been tested. Now we are seeing a correction. We can talk about a medium-term decline in the value of the dollar-ruble futures only when the price drops below 76,000. And after the 90,000 mark, limitless price opportunities open up. This already happened in 2014. Did you think where else could the price go? And she showed us that anything is possible.

As history has proven more than once, in any critical situation you can only rely on yourself. Regardless of the exchange rate, if you follow simple rules, you can safely survive its increase.

1. Do not buy currency at the maximum price. As a rule, when panic begins due to information from the media, the exchange rate has already risen so much on the stock exchange that it may begin to decline or correct.
2. Control your expenses.
3. Create a safety net. Save 10% of the money you earn, even if this amount seems insignificant.
4. Create new sources of income. This will protect you from any currency fluctuations. Will guarantee financial stability.

For those who trade professionally:

1. Control and limit losses.
2. Follow your trading system strictly
3. Don't accumulate errors, solve them as soon as they appear

We would really like to wish everyone that the dollar exchange rate does not negatively affect our finances. But he only helped to increase them.

The article was prepared by the school’s senior teacher Elena Zhukova

The ruble exchange rate continues to decline, and this trend in exchange trading is strengthening every day. Despite statements by financial regulators that there are no objective reasons for the national currency to fall further, last week the euro surpassed the psychologically important mark of 80 rubles. And on September 12, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the official rates at 81.39 rubles per euro and 69.97 rubles per dollar.

A drop in sales, mainly in European destinations, is also recorded in network travel agencies. “But for now it is insignificant and may be associated both with the rise in exchange rates and with the unstable situation in the tourism market as a whole,” comments the network development director "RossTour". However, she added that over the past week there have been no noticeable changes in the structure of demand. “Tourists who have already planned their vacation are not changing their plans at the moment,” said Slugina. At the same time, observers do not rule out that with further surges, travelers may reorient themselves both to other outbound destinations and to domestic ones.

Of course, there are people who are ready to go on vacation abroad at almost any rate. But there are few of them. Let's try to evaluate together how best to optimize vacation costs? Take surveys.

Against the backdrop of falling oil prices, the dollar and euro continue to reach new highs. Every day the ruble becomes cheaper. “Lenta.ru” tried to answer the main questions about devaluation: will the dire forecasts about the rise in price of the dollar to 100 rubles come true and how this will affect prices and the welfare of the population.

What is going on?

The stabilization of the ruble, which was discussed at the end of 2015 by the Central Bank, has been postponed. The head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the volatility of the national currency has decreased, and a floating exchange rate is the most suitable for the Russian economy. Director of the Department of Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia Igor Dmitriev that the ruble exchange rate is close to equilibrium values.

The Russian currency met the first working week of 2016 with a fall. On January 12, at the beginning of trading on the Moscow Exchange, the value of the dollar exceeded 77 rubles (the maximum since December 2014), and the euro almost reached 84 rubles. Oil continues to put pressure on the ruble. Trading in the benchmark Brent crude began at $31.5 per barrel. Quotes smoothly dropped to $30.44 (by 09:30 Moscow time).

Will a dollar cost 100 rubles?

There are such forecasts. For example, an analyst at the Dutch Rabobank (one of the top 30 largest financial organizations in the world) Peter Mathis, that the dollar can really rise in price to 100 rubles. “In the worst-case scenario and with a rapid drop in oil prices,” he emphasized, making it clear that this is a critical development option. Nevertheless, Mathis considers an increase in the exchange rate to 80-90 rubles per dollar quite probable.

Sergei Khestanov, Advisor to the General Director for Macroeconomics at the Otkritie brokerage house, recommends leaving aside guesses and fears inspired by intuition and resorting to common sense. “A “fair” ruble exchange rate can be easily assessed using the “Kudrin formula”: the cost of Brent must be multiplied by the current dollar exchange rate. Then the result obtained should be compared with the price of oil in ruble equivalent included in the Russian budget,” he noted in an interview with Lenta.ru.

The current price of a barrel of Brent is $30, multiplying it by the dollar exchange rate (77 rubles), it turns out to be 2,310 rubles. The budget for 2016 was drawn up based on the estimated cost of oil at 2,600 rubles per barrel. It turns out that the Russian currency has a weakening potential of 10-11 percent. Thus, the dollar can rise to 85 rubles.

Obviously, the ruble is highly dependent on oil, and it is the movements of black gold that will change the value of the Russian currency. So you need to monitor changes in the commodity market. There are also some gloomy predictions here. The British bank Standard Chartered allowed the price of oil to fall to $10 per barrel. American Morgan Stanley worsened its forecast for Brent by 20 percent: previously the bank believed that on average in 2016 the price of the North Sea mark would reach $51.9, now it is $41.9.

The Russian government's steps also support the idea that oil prices will fall. Under pressure from low prices for raw materials, the authorities carried out a budget sequestration - cutting expenses by 10 percent.

There is another camp - here there is an optimistic mood. For example, the International Energy Agency predicts that at the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017, the price of oil will begin to rise. Analyst Dmitry Petrov from the Japanese financial company Nomura, recognized by Bloomberg as the best forecaster of the last four quarters, believes that within three months the dollar will fall in price from 74 to 67 rubles with oil prices at $35-40 per barrel. By the end of the year, the American currency will cost 65 rubles, Dmitry Petrov is sure.

How much will prices rise?

The rise in the dollar exchange rate leads to an acceleration of inflation in Russia (the purchase of goods occurs in American currency). Despite the fact that imports are systematically declining (according to customs information, the volume of imported goods fell by 37.1 percent over the 11 months of 2015), the country still remains dependent on foreign supplies, especially in the segment of household appliances and some food products.

In October 2014, the dollar was worth 40 rubles, inflation reached 0.8 percent. By the end of November, the dollar rose to 49 rubles, price growth accelerated to 1.3 percent; in December - more than 70 rubles and 2.6 percent, respectively. Overall, in 2014, inflation exceeded 11.4 percent. Last year prices rose another 12.9 percent.

In 2016, inflation should be 5.5-6.5 percent, according to the Central Bank. A sharp weakening of the ruble could undermine the regulator’s plans. “Even in good times, inflation in Russia was not low. Now we can say that prices will increase by more than 10 percent,” notes Sergei Khestanov from Otkritie.

What to do?

Experts recommend not to panic and storm exchange offices. In conditions of increased volatility in the foreign exchange market, such behavior can cause large losses. Sergei Khestanov warns that the current situation is far from equilibrium, and it is too early to make predictions about further fluctuations of the ruble. “The best thing to do is wait until the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market subside and the market settles down,” he comments.

At the same time, the expert believes that the dollar will remain the most effective way to protect savings for many years. Within five to eight years, the US currency will be the best investment instrument. “It makes sense to transfer all savings that are not needed in the near future into dollars,” Sergei Khestanov is sure.

Specialists who work in the field of budget formation took into account certain adjustments and fluctuations in the exchange rate of the domestic currency. Analyzing the expected economic processes, the average dollar exchange rate in 2018 should be in the range of 64.7 rubles, however, many analysts suggest that these fluctuations may be more significant.

A dollar will cost 100 rubles in 2018

The forecast that the exchange rate of the domestic currency may weaken significantly is likely if a number of factors are met. In order for 1 dollar to be purchased for 100 rubles, critical processes must be observed in the economy.

The US government can weaken the ruble if it introduces a new package of sanctions against Russian companies. The ruble exchange rate may fall to a critical point as oil production increases at a lower cost. Also, the exchange rate of the domestic currency is affected by an imperfect import substitution policy. Officials must optimize this area in order to completely abandon foreign products.

The main factor that could become decisive in the event of a likely collapse of the ruble is the outflow of capital abroad. If all of the above factors coincide, the exchange rate may change significantly, and as a result, one unit of foreign currency can be purchased for 100 rubles at the end of 2018.

Latest news about the likely dollar exchange rate in 2018

Analysts who work in the Russian Federation and are actively studying the situation around the domestic currency say that the maximum threshold for increasing the exchange rate is 80 rubles per dollar. The sanctions that other countries impose on Russian enterprises are the main reason for the outflow of foreign investors from Russian markets.

Dmitry Polevoy, who is the chief economist of the RDIF, says that an increase in the cost of oil can save the ruble. Analysts agree that the ruble is an undervalued currency. Countries that impose sanctions against the Russian Federation put psychological pressure on the economy. There is no deterioration in economic indicators in the country.

The government of the Russian Federation is already introducing active measures to adjust the ruble exchange rate. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has suspended the purchase of foreign currency. For now, officials are reassuring people, claiming that there will be no collapse of the ruble.