Economic growth as an economic category. Economic growth: concept, goals and its measurement Economic growth is measured in two ways

To measure economic growth, a system of indicators is used that makes it possible to identify and analyze production performance at the macro level. The production process and its results are not constant, but, on the contrary, are in a state of dynamic quantitative and qualitative changes, including exchange, distribution, consumption, accumulation, investment, supply and demand, and the like.

Changes in economic characteristics (parameters) in the elements of the economy due to their interaction are called economic dynamics. Economic dynamics - This is the development of the economy, during which the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of economic phenomena and processes and the volume of the social product change.

To characterize economic dynamics, time series are used - these are series of statistical indicators that characterize the development of social phenomena over time. There are dynamic series of absolute, relative and average values. Dynamic series of absolute values ​​are divided into interval and moment.

Interval series characterize the state of a phenomenon over certain periods of time (for example, production in a year or month), that is, it is a numerical series of dynamics, the levels of which characterize the change in the value of a certain parameter at regular intervals. The average of an interval series is defined as the simple arithmetic mean. The interval series is presented in the table.

Moment series characterize the state of the phenomenon at any specific point in time (for example, the presence of machines in the workshop at the beginning of each month). The average level of a moment series with equal intervals between time dates is defined as the chronological average. An interval series can be displayed in a table.

Among the quantitative methods of analytical research, the use of average and relative values ​​has become widespread.

Average values (simple arithmetic, weighted arithmetic, chronological means, geometric means, harmonic means, square means) are used in the analysis to generalize the characteristics of mass homogeneous indicators in legal statistics. The average value characterizes the general level of the attribute, which is analyzed when it is subject to significant fluctuations. A prerequisite for using the method of averages is the qualitative homogeneity of the totality of phenomena and facts that are being studied.

When calculating average values, it is necessary to take into account that they are divided into two groups depending on the goals:

Simple averages calculated without taking into account the significance of each element in the total population;

Weighted averages, which take into account the weight (significance) of the subjects being studied.

Relative values are quantities that express quantitative relationships between socio-economic phenomena. they are obtained by dividing one element value. If time series of relative values ​​are used, then the level of parameters is measured in percentages or coefficients. Relative values ​​have advantages over absolute values. The latter serve, as a rule, to calculate relative values, with the help of which one can analyze the level of fulfillment of planned targets or standards, the dynamics of phenomena, the development of structural changes, and perform coefficient analysis. Relative quantities are the ratio of two absolute quantities.

The value with which it is compared is called the base value, and the one that is compared is called the reporting value. The relative value shows how many times the compared value is greater than the base value or what proportion of the second is the first. Numerous facts of social life are expressed with the help of relative quantities. According to their form, relative values ​​are divided into coefficients, percentages, and indices.

Odds used to compare two interrelated indicators, one of which is taken as one.

Interest are necessary to characterize the ratio of quantities, one of which is taken as 100. Percentages can be used to calculate the structure of output, the structure of assets, liabilities, characteristics of plan implementation, and the like.

Indexes are used to study indicators over time. There are basic and chain indices. In the calculation of basic indices, the first (basic) indicator of the dynamic series is taken as 100%, and the following values ​​are calculated as a percentage of the basic one. In the calculation of chain indices, each indicator of the dynamic series is compared not with the base one, but with the previous year.

To analyze the dynamics of the manufactured product, the following indicators are used:

Absolute increase;

Growth rate;

Rate of increase;

Average annual growth and gain rates. Absolute product growth shows by what value a given

the volume (volume of the reporting or current period) of the social product (P 1) is greater (smaller) than the volume of the product of the base period (P 0):

Absolute increase in product = P 1 - P 0.

The growth rate shows How many times (or by what percentage) is the volume of the product of the current (reporting) period greater (less) than the volume of the base period (year, month, five years, etc.):

The growth rate shows by how many times or percent the product increases during the period under review. It is calculated by the formula:

Average annual growth rate used to analyze time series over several years. It is calculated as the geometric mean of the products of growth rate coefficients:

where T is the average annual growth rate, K is the annual economic growth rate, n is the period (several years) for which the calculation is carried out.

The indicator is also calculated average annual growth rate, only in the formula the growth coefficients are replaced by the growth coefficients.

This method is the basis for determining economic trend. The essence of which is to determine the long-term dynamics of economic development (for 10 years or more). Because over a long period, as a rule, changes in economic development occur, for example, recession is replaced by growth and vice versa.

The economic trend is mathematically expressed through the average annual growth rate and increment based on the geometric mean using the formula:

The rate of growth and gain is calculated as a coefficient (to get it as a percentage, the result should be multiplied by 100). If the growth rate is greater than one (100%), then growth occurs; if it is equal to one (100%), the product does not grow, and if less than one (100%), then an economic decline will occur. The growth rate with economic growth has a positive value, and with a reduction in production volume it has a negative value.

The index method is also used to characterize economic growth. Under index understand the average relative number characterizing overall changes in the aggregates of various elements. Economic indices are relative values ​​that characterize changes in the level of indicators that are being considered. The widespread use of indices is due to the fact that many of the economic parameters (especially monetary ones) are aggregates of heterogeneous elements. The index method makes it possible to analyze the dynamics of not only heterogeneous aggregates, but also their individual elements. There are aggregate and individual indices.

Aggregate indexes are used to determine the dynamics of singing-dimensional and non-singing quantities and can combine quantity and price, which are the most important factors in the dynamics of a product. Any indicator of a social product can be displayed as the sum of the products of the price of each individual product:

P = Y1P1+Y2P2+YazPz+...+YaPrp = IApPp,

where q is the quantity of each type of product: p is the unit price of a given type of product: n is the number of types of product; X - amount;

q 1 p 1 - cost of the first type of product;

q 2 p 2 - the cost of the second type of product, etc. Each type of product is a separate product (cars, refrigerators, washing machines, cigarettes, bread, etc.).

Individual index shows the dynamics of a single indicator:

And - ^

AND - - 5

where and is the individual index; q 1 - quantity in the reporting period; q 0 - quantity in the base period.

The growth rate of GDP/GNP does not always indicate an increase in the physical volume of the product because, as a rule, this indicator grows due to inflation (price inflation), since the volume of the product cannot be calculated otherwise than through value terms, that is, through prices. Therefore, there is often a situation when the value of a national product grows, but its physical volume decreases. This is a situation where prices rise and the production of goods and services decreases.

The price index is used to measure inflation. It makes it possible to calculate the volume of real social product, which does not depend on price changes. If we calculate GDP/GNP in current prices (in prices of the current period), we will determine the nominal national product, and when we calculate it in constant basic prices, we will get real national product.

Real national product is inflation-adjusted nominal national product.

So, the actual value of the real social product is hampered by inflation. To get rid of its influence and find the volume of the real product, the volume of the nominal product should be divided by the price index of the corresponding period:

where GNP p is the real national product; GNP n - nominal national product; Ір - price index.

The price index, which reduces the nominal product to the real value, is called the national product deflator. The price index, in this regard, is called the deflator of the national product (deflator - reducer).

There are basic and chain indices. Basic indices show the ratio to the base period (all previous indices were basic). Chain indices give a ratio to the previous period. The chain index is the result of sequential multiplication of monthly index values.

In macroeconomics, Paasche indices and Las Peires indices are used. The first exclude (eliminate) certain characteristics of the current (reporting) period, and the second - the base. This allows us to determine how various aggregate economic parameters change over time.

The Paasche index has the following form:

These indices show changes over time when the influence of the physical volume of the product is excluded (elimination), but the Paasche index shows changes in prices over time, and the Laspeyres index - in retrospect (in the past). The disadvantages of these indices are partially eliminated by the Fisher price index, averaging their values. (These issues are discussed in more detail in the statistics course).

Bibliography

Basic Concepts

Say's law, actual investment, planned investment, autonomous investment, induced investment, monetary rule of monetarism, theory of supply-side economics, Laffer curve, theory of rational expectations, extrapolative expectations, adaptive expectations, rational expectations.

Agapova, T. A. Macroeconomics: textbook / T. A. Agapova, S. F. Seregina; under general ed. A. V. Sidorovich. M., 1999. Ch. 5, 7, 9, 12.

Dolan, E. J. Money, banking and monetary policy / E. J. Dolan et al. St. Petersburg, 1994. Part IV.

Dolan, E. J. Macroeconomics / E. J. Dolan, D. Lindsay. St. Petersburg, 1994. Section. II. Ch. 5.

Course of economic theory: textbook / ed. M. N. Chepurina, E. A. Kiseleva. Kirov, 2001. Ch. 18, 26.

McConnell, K. R. Economics: principles, problems and policies / K. R. McConnell, S. L. Brew. M., 2003. Ch. 17.

Mankiw, N. G. Principles of Economics / N. G. Mankiw. St. Petersburg, 1999. Part 12.

Market economics: in 3 volumes. M., 1992. Vol. 1. Part 2. Macroeconomics. Ch. 4, 5.

Sachs, J. D. Macroeconomics. Global approach / J. D. Sachs, F. B. Larren. M., 1996. Ch. 12.

Samuelson, P. A. Economics / P. A. Samuelson, V. D. Nordhouse. M., 1997. Ch. 23, 24, 31, 33.

Selishchev, A. S. Macroeconomics / A. S. Selishchev. St. Petersburg, 2000. Parts 1, 2, 4.

Usoskin, V. N. “Money World” by Milton Friedman / V. N. Usoskin. M., 1989.

Friedman, M. About freedom / M. Friedman, F. Hayek. Minsk, 1990.

Heine, P. Economic way of thinking / P. Heine. M., 1991. Ch. 18.

Eklund, K. Effective economy - the Swedish model / K. Eklund. M., 1991. Ch. 5, 6, 10, 11.

Economics: textbook / ed. A. S. Bulatova. M., 1996. Ch. 2, 20.

Chapter 22

The economic growth

Economic growth means long-term sustainable development of the economy, i.e. the process of increasing national income and gross domestic product in the long term without disturbing the equilibrium state of the economy. Economic growth is a long-term trend of increasing the mass and value of indicators characterizing the level of economic development of a country, primarily real GDP. This process is also associated with growth in potential GDP (GDP at full employment of resources), which indicates an increase in production capabilities. Economic growth is measured by an increase in: 1) real GDP (RD) over a certain period; 2) real GDP (GDP) per capita for a certain period.

Economic growth is measured by annual growth rates, or growth, as a percentage if the level of the base period is taken as 100, and in decimal fractions if the level of the base period is taken as 1. The rate of economic growth is the ratio of the absolute level of a macroeconomic indicator in the current period to its level in the base period, taken as 100% or 1. They show how many times the level of the indicator in the current period is greater than its level in the base period or what part it makes up of the level of the base period (when the rate is less than 100% or 1). The growth rate is equal to the economic growth rate minus 100% (if the base period is taken as 100%) or 1 (if the base period is taken as 1).

If the same constant period is taken as the base period, then a number of base economic growth rates are calculated. If the period preceding the current one is taken as the base period, then a series of chain rates of economic growth is formed. The product of the chain rate of economic growth is equal to the base rate of economic growth.

When analyzing growth rates, it is important to determine the absolute content (price) of 1% growth. As the scale of the economy grows, 1% growth becomes more significant every year. At the same time, annual growth rates are decreasing due to the fact that each time they are calculated to ever-increasing absolute levels. Quantitatively, or statistically, the rate of economic growth characterizes the speed of development over time of various economic processes. The growth rate of real GDP shows how the mass and value of these indicators grow over the year, over a number of consecutive periods. Production growth rates are dynamic indicators of economic growth. And static indicators as of a certain date make it possible to determine the initial basis of economic development.

When comparing the rates of economic growth of different countries for the same periods of time using the same indicators, it is possible to determine which country’s economy is developing faster, with what speed and intensity its economic growth occurs. For example, how long will it take for different countries to double national income at different rates of economic growth? The answer is clear: a shorter period will be required for the country with higher economic growth rates. In other words, dynamic economic growth indicators reveal the potential production capabilities of countries.

However, one cannot help but note the difficulty of statistically displaying economic growth over time, since the structure and volumes of goods produced and their prices change. In addition, comparison of growth rates over long periods requires a qualitative analysis of economic development, taking into account many factors that cannot be directly reflected in statistical indicators.

Thus, we should talk not only about quantitative, but also about qualitative characteristics of economic growth. The former are expressed in an increase in the rate of economic growth and the “weight” (“price”) of each percentage increase. In turn, the quality of economic growth shows how, on the basis of what factors, an increase in the rate of economic development is achieved. This approach is of fundamental importance for distinguishing two types of economic growth – extensive and intensive.

An increase in key economic indicators, for example, real GDP, achieved over a certain period, can be the result of either a purely quantitative increase in production (economic) resources, or an increase in the efficiency of resource use (when the increase in the volume of a product outstrips the increase in the volume of production resources). In the first case, we should talk about purely quantitative, or extensive, and in the second, about qualitative, or intensive, factors of economic growth associated with increasing the efficiency of resource use. The extensive type of economic growth is understood as economic growth in which the predominant part of the growth of product (GDP) is determined by extensive, i.e. purely quantitative, growth of resources. The intensive type of economic growth is understood as economic growth in which a significant or even predominant part of the increase in product is due to an increase in the efficiency of resource use. In reality, the action of extensive and intensive factors of economic development is closely intertwined. Economic growth under the influence of only intensive or only extensive factors is rarely observed. A mixed (real) type of economic growth means that development occurs due to an increase in the number of production factors used and the improvement of equipment and technology. Therefore, as a rule, they talk about a predominantly intensive or predominantly extensive type of economic growth. If the share of real GDP obtained through intensive factors is more than 50%, then we speak of a predominantly intensive type of economic growth, and vice versa. Of course, in conditions of limited resources, economic development carried out on a predominantly intensive basis is preferable.

The most important characteristic of the economy of the 19th–20th centuries is rapid economic growth. The American economist S. Kuznets proposed a criterion for determining the “modern” type of economic growth: real gross national (or domestic) product per capita must grow by an average of at least 1% per year. This purely quantitative characteristic of economic growth is possible only with completely definite qualitative changes both in the economy and in the socio-political structures of society. In the economy, such changes include shifts in the proportions of use of production factors (increasing capital costs and reducing labor costs), which, in turn, leads to increased labor productivity. Finally, scientific and technological progress and improving the quality of the workforce play a significant role in this process.

The concept of economic growth and ways to measure it.

Types of economic growth.

Factors and sources of economic growth.

Two models of economic growth.

Contradictions of economic growth.

The concept of economic growth and ways to measure it.

An increase in gross national product, net national product, national income, and personal income occurs as a result of economic growth.

Economic growth is the increase in national production of goods and services over a period of time. It is measured in two interrelated ways:

as an increase in real gross national product or net national product over a given period;

as the increase in gross national product or net national product per capita over a given period.

The indicator by which economic growth is measured is the gross national product (GNP). In addition, the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) is used for the same purposes. In this case, only changes in real GNP (or GNP) are taken into account. An increase in GNP due to higher prices of the current period, i.e. a change in national (in price terms) GNP cannot be considered as economic growth.

By constructing indicators characterizing the growth rate of GNP over a number of years, it is possible to identify a trend, i.e. direction of economic development. When combined with other macroeconomic indicators, such information serves as the basis for the economic analysis necessary to develop and make decisions at the government level, as well as to test and monitor the effectiveness of government economic policies.

To measure economic growth, especially when compared internationally, indicators such as “GNP per capita” (and growth rates) are also widely used. These indicators are usually used to characterize the standard of living and the dynamics of well-being of the population of a particular country. With the same volume of real national product, its value per capita will depend on the population of a given country. An increase in the average standard of living causes only an increase in output (GNP) that exceeds population growth.

Types of economic growth. There are two types of economic growth – extensive and intensive.

The extensive type of economic growth involves expanding the scale of production. This means that economic growth is achieved by increasing the number of factors of production involved in production on the same technical basis. Extensive factors of economic growth reflect the quantitative side of increasing production volume due to an increase in the volume of used production resources. These include: an increase in the number of employees, an increase in capital investment, an increase in the volume of consumed raw materials.

An intensive type of economic growth involves the use of more efficient means of production, technologies and processes. This means that economic growth is achieved through improved use of factors of production. Intensive factors of economic growth reflect the qualitative side of increasing production volume by increasing the efficiency of use of production resources. These include: advanced training of workers, economy, scientific and technological progress, improvement of technology and organization of labor and production, improvement of product quality.

In reality, there are no pure extensive and pure intensive types of economic growth. Factors of extensive and intensive growth “neighbor”, connect, combine. A market economy is characterized by periods of predominantly extensive and predominantly intensive types of economic growth.

The influence of both factors can be represented graphically as a shift of the production possibilities curve to the right (see graph 1).

DEFINITION

Growth rate represents the ratio of the value of any economic indicator for a certain time to its initial value, which is taken as the basis (base) of reference.

Growth rate is measured as a percentage or relative value.

The rate of economic growth is directly dependent on type of economic growth. There are 2 types of economic growth in economics – extensive growth and intensive.

At extensive growth an increase in production volumes occurs due to the introduction of a larger number of factors (raw materials, fuel, labor, equipment, etc.).

At intensive type of growth an increase in production volume can be achieved by improving quality indicators (qualifications, technologies, achievements of scientific and technological progress). That is, growth occurs due to an improvement in quality, and not quantity, as with extensive growth.

If the intensive type begins, then the pace may even decrease slightly compared to the extensive type of growth. But this fact does not mean that there has been a decline in economic development or that it has slowed down.

Features of growth types:

• With an extensive type of growth, the economy can maintain proportions, structural characteristics and development in breadth.
• With an intensive type of growth, the economy becomes dynamic due to the expansion of production, as well as due to progressive structural adjustments.

Growth rate formula

In general, the growth rate formula is as follows:

Tr=Pnp/Pkp

Here Tp is the growth rate,

Pnp – indicator of the beginning of the period,

Pkp is an indicator of the end of the period.

To obtain a more visual result, the resulting answer is multiplied by 100% and the growth rate formula is expressed as a percentage.

What does the growth rate formula show?

The growth rate shows the percentage increase in the statistical indicator of the current period compared to the previous period.

At different values ​​of the growth rate formula, three scenarios can be observed:

1) A growth rate of more than 100% means positive dynamics.

2) A growth rate of 100% means that no changes have occurred.

3) A growth rate of less than 100% means negative dynamics.

Difference between growth rate and growth rate

Often students confuse the concepts of growth rate and growth rate, since their formulas are slightly similar.

To determine the growth rate, the indicator of the base period is subtracted from the indicator of the calculation period, then the resulting result is divided by the indicator of the base period and multiplied by 100%. As a result, you can obtain the growth rate as a percentage.

In order not to confuse these concepts, it should be noted that the growth rate reflects the growth of the indicator itself, that is, how many times it changes in the period of time under consideration.

And the growth rate, in turn, reflects how much the indicator grows over this period of time in comparison.

Examples of problem solving

EXAMPLE 1

EXAMPLE 1

2. Economic growth: factors, indicators and methods for measuring them.

1.1. Economic growth: essence and factors.

The economic growth - this is the quantitative and qualitative improvement of the social product over a certain period of time. Economic growth means that at any given period of time, the solution to the problem of limited resources is to some extent facilitated and it becomes possible to satisfy a wider range of needs of society.

There are two main types of economic growth: extensive and intensive.

The essence of the extensive type of economic growth is that the increase in the national product is carried out through a quantitative increase in production factors and by attracting additional factors. With its help, natural resources are rapidly developed, and it is also possible to relatively quickly reduce or eliminate unemployment and ensure greater employment of the workforce. On the other hand, this way of increasing production also has certain disadvantages, since it is characterized by technical stagnation, in which a quantitative increase in output is not accompanied by technical and economic progress.

The intensive type is a more complex type of economic growth, the main thing in it is the improvement of production technology and the increase in the main factors of production. The most important factor in intensive economic growth is increasing labor productivity. This type of economic growth is characterized by an increase in the scale of production, which is based on the widespread use of more efficient and qualitatively improved factors of production. The main distinguishing feature of the intensive type of economic growth is the increase in the efficiency of production factors based on technical progress. Factors of economic growth.

The economic growth of any country is determined by six main factors, four of which are related to the physical ability of the economy to grow:

1. Quantity and quality of natural resources.

2. Quantity and quality of labor resources.

3. Volume of fixed capital.

4. Technology.

These four factors of economic growth can be combined under the name supply factors. They are the ones who make production growth physically possible. Only the availability of a large number of natural resources of the best quality, including technological potential, makes it possible to increase the production of a real product.

Real growth depends, firstly, on demand factors. To realize the growing production potential, the country's economy must ensure full use of the expanding volume of resources. Secondly, economic growth is influenced by distributional factors. For the most appropriate use of production potential, it is necessary to ensure not only the full involvement of resources in economic circulation, but also their most effective utilization.

Economic growth and economic development

Economic growth represents the development of the national economy in which real national income and real gross domestic product increase as sources of satisfying the needs of society. Economic growth is usually understood not as short-term increases in the real volume of national production, but as long-term trends in the increase and qualitative improvement of the national product and the factors of its production.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Economic indicators are financial and economic data published by various government agencies or private organizations. Regular release of such statistical information helps market analysts stay abreast of economic movements. Practically, all participants in financial markets closely monitor economic indicators and make decisions on this basis. Therefore, such information can cause a sharp surge in prices and transaction volume. At first glance, it may seem that this analysis for making deals, based on an incredibly huge flow of information, requires at least an advanced degree in economics. In fact, you just need to follow a few rules when researching, organizing and making trading decisions based on this information.

You need to know exactly when a particular economic indicator is expected to be published. Maintain a calendar of events (paper or electronic) indicating the date and time of publication of statistical information. Information about the release of such information can be found on the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York by searching for the keywords “economic indicators”. This information is also available in many other sources. Mostly provided by the company you are trading with.

Tracking economic indicators also helps determine the reasons for seemingly incomprehensible and unexpected price movements. Consider the following situation. Imagine that on Monday morning the dollar continues its decline, which has been going on for three weeks. In most cases, traders try to hold significant short positions in the dollar. However, US employment data is expected to be published on Friday. It is very likely that in anticipation of this most important economic indicator, the dollar will strengthen in the short term until the time of publication. This is due to the fact that prudent traders will prefer to close their short positions. The point is that economic indicators can influence prices both directly (the fact of publication) and indirectly (as a factor pushing traders to revise and redistribute positions in anticipation of information).

It is important to understand what specific side of the economy a particular indicator illuminates. For example, you need to know which indicators reflect economic growth (gross national product - GDP), inflation (PPI - wholesale producer price index, CPI - consumer price index), or employment (number of industrial workers - non-farm payrolls). By closely observing key indicators over a period of time, you will learn to understand the nuances of each economic phenomenon and the aspects of the economy that they measure.

However, not all economic indicators are equally important. Although at the time of creation their importance was almost the same. However, over time, some of them gained greater influence on the market, while others remained in the shadows. Market participants may have their own preferences for certain indicators depending on the general state of the economy.

You need to know which indicators market participants are watching especially closely. For example, if the price level (inflation) in a particular country is not critical, then most likely the publication of inflation data will not be expected by the market, and the reaction will be weak or even zero. On the other hand, if too rapid economic growth is a pressing issue, then market participants will closely monitor changes in employment or gross national product data, and the release of these data will likely cause a significant rally in the market.

The data itself is not as important as how well it matches market expectations. In addition to the timing of data release, information about what numbers economists expect for each indicator is extremely important. For example, understanding economic phenomena after an unexpected increase in an indicator such as the wholesale price index (PPI) by 0.3%. This jump is not as relevant to short-term decision-making as knowing that the market is expecting a 0.1% decline in PPI this month. As already stated, you should always keep in mind that PPI is a measure of prices; and its unexpected increase will be considered a sign of inflation.

Don't be fooled by provocative headlines. In order to understand the economics of the market, you need to know the key features of each indicator. Macroeconomics professors may insist that the unemployment rate is of utmost importance, but even novice traders know that this number is intended for amateurs, and the most important component of the report is non-farm payrolls. There are other similar economic indicators in the sense that the number of the indicator is not as important as the details. For example, PPI is a measure of producer prices, but the most important thing about it is PPI without taking into account food and energy prices. Traders know that food and energy data is highly volatile and is subject to monthly adjustments and is therefore a less accurate indicator of wholesale prices.

By the way, about adjustments. Do not rush to take active action if the economic indicator does not fall into market expectations. Newly published economic indicators are always based on adjustments to previously published data. For example, if durable goods prices rose 0.5% in the current month when the market expects them to fall, there will be an unexpected jump that could result from a data adjustment next month. Also pay attention to the adjustments to previously released data, because in this case, if prices for durable goods, for example, in the previous month increased by 0.5%, now, after taking into account the new information, it turns out that the increase is only 0.1 %. Therefore, the unexpected increase in the current month is most likely the result of a revision and decline in figures from the previous month.

There are two parties involved in any transaction in the foreign exchange market. The United States or European countries regularly publish a comprehensive set of economic indicators that are readily available to traders, but not all countries are as disciplined in providing information about their economies. It is important to remember that not all countries publish information as effectively as the G7 countries do. If you are planning to trade the currency of a particular country, then you must find out all the details of the economic indicators published by that country. As mentioned, not all economic indicators have the same weight and accuracy in the market. Do all the necessary research and the market will not take you by surprise.