Dollar exchange rate what will happen next. Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate. This raises questions

If you haven’t thought about what will happen to the dollar in 2016, expert opinion 1 hour ago, then you are a happy person. 2016 got off to a rather turbulent start for the Russian economy, with the ruble again weakening significantly against the dollar. The once stable Russian currency has suffered a constant decline for the second year in a row. In this regard, I would like to understand what to expect next from the situation on the foreign exchange market.

Now the economic situation in the country is not stable and this began at the end of 2014. This causes concern among Russian citizens, because experts emphasize that the situation against the backdrop of a global drop in oil prices will only worsen. What will happen to the ruble in 2016, and how much will the dollar cost? Even serious economic experts do not undertake to make accurate forecasts. Therefore, there are many scenarios for the development of the economic situation. To be fair, it must be said that they are all quite pessimistic. During a crisis, you can do this.

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What will happen to the dollar in 2016, expert opinion 1 hour ago? We need to look at the latest statistics. They say that the ruble exchange rate against the dollar has already fallen by 18.9% since the beginning of the year. This is despite the fact that the unfavorable situation in Syria and Ukraine continues to worsen, which will further undermine the economy of our country.

The Central Bank tried once and quickly to influence the foreign exchange market and the dollar exchange rate against the ruble. But, unfortunately, this did not bring the expected and effective results. The government is now trying to begin to control inflation in the country in order to maintain the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar. Expert opinions allow us to draw up three scenarios for the development of events on the foreign exchange market in the country and the economic situation in general.

Forecasts for scenario No. 1

It must be said that this scenario, what will happen to the dollar in 2016, the opinion of experts 1 hour ago in relation to the ruble, can be called optimistic. Experts say the country is now recovering. High rates of economic growth in 2016, as well as an increase in the price per barrel of oil, will allow the ruble to return to the dollar by 40 rubles.

Important! Also, within this scenario, experts note that the economic sanctions of Western countries against Russia will be lifted by the spring, which means there will be an increase in GDP.

Forecasts for scenario No. 2

As you can see, the oil market has been experiencing a price collapse for several years now and this situation will continue. This, of course, will worsen the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate against the Russian ruble.
Some experts note that the government has certain plans on how to strengthen the national currency, which is weakening. But the main emphasis here should be on exports, and sanctions have been imposed on Russia. So, the ruble will continue to confidently lose its position against the dollar in 2016. There is an active decline in oil prices on the world market. It was oil that brought foreign exchange income to our country for many years.

It is also necessary to note the influence of the country’s geopolitics on the weakening of the ruble against the dollar. After the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the Russian economy began to suffer huge losses. A good and economical dish: .

Forecasts for scenario No. 3

What will happen to the dollar in 2016, expert opinion 1 hour ago? Many experts agree that the third scenario is the most realistic. The situation with sanctions, as recent events show, is unlikely to change. Back in the summer, it was almost unanimously decided to maintain sanctions against Russia. The situation with Ukraine is only getting worse, which contributes to the aggravation and strengthening of sanctions.

The country's GDP in 2016 will be zero, according to World Bank forecasts. So, even if the price of oil remained at the level of the end of 2015, the ruble would continue to depreciate. But, as practice showed at the beginning of 2016, the price of oil also continues to fall.

Experts: what will happen to the dollar in 2016

As is clear from the first part of the material, experts cannot come to a consensus. Very little depends on them here; many do not have complete information, which makes it simply impossible to make unambiguous forecasts. 2016, all experts agree, will be difficult economically for the country as a whole and for each citizen in particular. The ruble will continue to lose its position against the dollar.

Andrei Kudrin, who used to be the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, notes that the Russian economy this year, unfortunately, will continue its decline and there will be a significant collapse. This will affect both the depreciation of the ruble and the purchasing power of citizens. To save money during a crisis, learn how to do...

Vladimir Tikhomirov, an experienced economist, agrees with these forecasts. It indicates that
The stability that the government is emphasizing today will not last long. Even if we take into account that at the forum in October 2015, which took place in Sochi, it was predicted that the ruble exchange rate would be at around 65 rubles per dollar in 2016, in reality this does not happen. During the first month, the ruble had already depreciated more.
Many experts believe that due to the fact that the fall of the ruble will continue, one American dollar will be worth 200 Russian rubles by the end of the year. This is against the backdrop of the fact that oil prices will continue to decline actively and rapidly.

Today the head of the FBK Institute for Strategic Analysis is Igor Nikolaev. He categorically disagrees with such pessimistic forecasts. The specialist emphasizes that now is simply a difficult period caused by various factors. When this period ends, the situation in the economy, including the ruble exchange rate, will normalize.

Of course, the question of what will happen to the dollar in 2016, expert opinion 1 hour ago, is extremely relevant almost every day. It especially reappeared among people in connection with the next round of the course. It is impossible to know exactly what will happen to the dollar and ruble in 2016. Experts express opposing opinions and judgments, only life will show how it all really turns out.

What will happen to the dollar in 2016, expert opinion 1 hour ago? Let's consider three scenarios, the first is optimistic, the second is simply alarming. As for the third option, which many experts adhere to, it is extremely complex, but, unfortunately, the most realistic within the framework of the current economic situation in the country.

If we do not consider geopolitics (which is almost impossible to successfully predict), there are 5 main factors that influence the ruble/dollar exchange rate.

Oil prices

The price of oil today is the most important factor determining the exchange rate of the Russian currency. Representatives of the oil industry and experts are generally moderately positive for 2016. The predicted oil price is in the range of $50–60, i.e. deviates from the current year average by +10-20%. Even those who ardently defended the concept of oil prices at $100 now admit that there will be no return to previous high levels.

Inflation

And associated with it can neutralize the generally positive oil trend. In the coming year, a certain slowdown in inflation rates is expected. However, the values ​​of this indicator will still be double-digit. The ruble will become cheaper, which, in the absence of capital inflows, can completely negate the entire positive effect of rising oil prices.

In 2016, GDP is likely to show approximately zero growth. A slight drop is possible. The overall economy will be poor. Real incomes of the population will continue to fall, as will effective demand. This will slow down economic development and put pressure on the ruble.

Central bank

The Central Bank will continue to serve as the main regulator of the national currency exchange rate and inflation rate. In conditions of a budget deficit, the leadership of the Central Bank will not be interested in maintaining a strong ruble. The easiest way to plug holes in the budget is through a weakened national currency.

Sanctions

Taking into account the current geopolitical situation and the sentiments of politicians on both sides, it is hardly possible to talk about the imminent lifting of mutual sanctions. However, if the warming of the political climate leads to the lifting of sanctions in 2016, this will support the ruble exchange rate.

Taking into account all the factors described above, we can predict the dollar exchange rate for next year to be in the range of 60–70 rubles. Most experts are of approximately the same opinion.

Expert forecasts for 2016 at the dollar/ruble exchange rate

• Let's start with the official forecasts. Here, first of all, you should pay attention to the budget data. The RF budget for 2016 includes an average annual exchange rate 63,3 ruble per dollar.
• Head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev would like to see the rate “a little weaker 61 ruble."
• Analysts at Credit Swiss Bank predict a strengthening of the ruble in the first quarter of 2016. However, Swiss financiers are not giving specific figures.
• World Bank report contains implications 61 ruble for the base scenario and 67,1 - for the pessimistic.
• Gazprom experts expect a rate at the level 60–62 ruble if oil prices are in the range of $50–55.
• The most optimistic forecast is from American bankers from Goldman Sachs. Bank specialists are waiting for the exchange rate 58 rubles
• But according to Morgan Stanley analysts, the future of the ruble is much more pessimistic. Experts predict the value of the exchange rate at the level 73 rub. at the end of 2016 and a decrease in GDP by 1.3%.

What should ordinary citizens do?

Ordinary citizens should stick to simple and effective tactics. All savings should be divided into three groups according to different currencies (rubles, euros, dollars), and then deposited in any bank included in the TOP 10. You can take as a guideline an annual return of 10% for ruble deposits and 2% for foreign currency deposits. It is advisable not to exceed the insured amount of 1.4 million, since in the coming year the country's banking system will be tested for strength.

Due to the unstable economic and political situation in the world, it is almost impossible to predict the state and dynamics of global financial, money and foreign exchange markets. That is why, despite conducting various studies and calculations, even specialists and experts cannot make an accurate forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2018.

What can we say about ordinary people who are simply trying to predict it.

Everyone understands that one of the most important indicators affecting the stability of the ruble is the price of oil. The Russian economy is too dependent on this factor, because oil is practically the only product from the export of which cash flows into the country depend.

When oil prices fall, the amount of foreign currency entering the Russian market falls, which leads to a weakening of the ruble. When oil prices rise, the opposite situation occurs. Therefore, it is not surprising that fluctuations in oil prices worry analysts so much.

Now it has stopped at around 65 dollars per barrel, but according to experts at Goldman Sachs, there is a possibility that towards the end of 2018 the situation will stabilize and the price of oil will rise to 70-80 dollars.

Consequences of sanctions

The military conflict in Ukraine, the desire of Western countries to isolate Russia and influence it by introducing sanctions also have a negative impact on the economic situation in the country and the stability of the national currency. If the most optimistic scenario is realized and it is possible to reach an agreement with the West on the lifting of sanctions, then GDP growth next year will show positive dynamics.

If the negotiations reach a dead end, then the sanctions will not only not be lifted, but may also be expanded in 2018, which will again affect the import of goods, prices in stores and the value of the ruble.

The policy pursued by the country's main monetary regulator also affects the stabilization of the ruble and the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate. In order to somehow support the national currency during the crisis, the Central Bank at the end of 2016 increased the refinancing rate to 17% and sent the ruble to “free float”, making the transition to a floating exchange rate.

All this could not but affect the well-being of ordinary citizens, since due to the increase in the discount rate, banks began to issue loans at higher interest rates. Subsequently, the refinancing rate gradually decreased and is currently set at 7.75%.

Although for now the Central Bank is no longer taking such radical actions to support the ruble, if a critical crisis situation occurs again, the main regulator can again use its tools to stabilize the national currency.

Inflation and GDP

An unfavorable situation in the national economy, in the financial, credit and money markets leads to. As a result of rising inflation, citizens' savings depreciate. According to statistics, real inflation in 2017 was almost 5%. And if the situation does not worsen, then next year it may remain at the same level.

According to optimistic forecasts, a gradual economic recovery will begin as early as 2018, which will stabilize inflation at the target 4%. But it must be taken into account that this will only happen if sanctions are lifted, oil prices are restored to at least $70/barrel and GDP grows.

Otherwise, the prospects are not so rosy.

Will the dollar rise in price?

There are diametrically opposed opinions regarding the issue of stabilizing the ruble and what will happen to the dollar in the near future and next year. In accordance with the point of view of the Ministry of Economic Development, the country’s economy will gradually recover and already in 2018 we can expect an exchange rate of about 50-53 rubles/dollar.

The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank adhere to the same positive forecasts. According to the most favorable estimates, the dollar exchange rate may even return to 40 rubles/dollar if the price of oil rises and Russia manages to replace imported goods with its own production.

The opinions of foreign experts are more pessimistic. So, according to the forecasts of Morgan Stanley specialists, the dollar exchange rate at the beginning of 2018 will be 72 rubles/dollar and even higher. This disappointing forecast is associated with a large-scale decline in the Russian economy, which analysts predicted for the fall of 2018.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs are a little more optimistic about the situation, predicting the exchange rate at 58 rubles/dollar in 2018. They attribute this to a slight increase in oil prices, which will have a positive effect on the condition of the ruble.

What should ordinary citizens do?

In such a difficult and incomprehensible economic situation that is happening in the country, it is very difficult for many people to make the right decision about how to act in order not to lose their savings. The dynamics of the dollar, euro and ruble exchange rates are too unpredictable to predict; the only thing that experts in the field of finance advise is to advise citizens not to panic and not make sudden decisions.

The best tactic is “portfolio diversification,” that is, if you have any savings, it is better to keep them in different currencies. On the one hand, you should not leave all your money in rubles, because the situation on the Russian financial market is too unpredictable. But it is also not recommended to exchange all savings for dollars, because the position of the dollar is also not the most obvious. At any moment, mortgage and credit bubbles could burst, and then a financial crisis similar to 2008 could occur again.

The stability of the euro is also in question. The unstable situation with Greece, the lack of a firm opinion on the events in Ukraine, and dependence on many issues from the US point of view can lead to a weakening of the euro and a crisis in the European community.

For those who have quite large sums and who want to further protect themselves from various financial shocks, we can recommend keeping part of the money in the English pound sterling or the Chinese yuan.

According to most experts, it is very difficult to give an accurate forecast of what will happen to the dollar in 2018. Fluctuations in oil prices, events in Ukraine, and European sanctions have shown that the Russian economy is highly dependent on many external factors that are almost impossible to influence. And depending on further developments, the situation in the country may develop according to different scenarios.

If Russia can avoid militarized conflicts and agree with European countries on the lifting of sanctions, then it will be able to stabilize its economy and strengthen the national currency, otherwise it will again destabilize all areas of the economy and financial sector.

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U.S. dollar is the official currency of the United States of America. Bank code is USD. Denoted by $. 1 dollar is equal to 100 cents. The denominations of banknotes in circulation are: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (a relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the Federal Reserve System, but have been no longer issued since 1945, and since 1969 have been officially withdrawn from circulation because They were replaced by an electronic payment system. The name of the monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval thaler coin minted in Germany.

Traditionally, the obverse of the US dollar features images of presidents and political figures of the United States. On modern banknotes these are Benjamin Franklin - 100 dollars, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: 100 dollars - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - the Capitol, 20 - the White House, 10 - the US Treasury, 5 - the Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The $1 bill has a special design on the back consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate government-issued documents and kept in Washington.

It is believed that to counteract the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design must be changed at least once every 7-10 years. Moreover, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.

The first decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic monetary unit was introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. Moreover, each time, as a result of a change in the price ratio of two precious metals, either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.

In 1900, the gold standard law was passed. At this point, 1 dollar corresponded to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was devalued for the first time by 41% as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold now costs $35.

At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only monetary unit exchanged for gold, while the rates of other world currencies were pegged to the American one. At the same time, in the post-war years, the United States became the main creditor of Europe. Thus, the US dollar became the world's currency of account and took its place in the reserves of central banks.

However, by 1960, chronic US budget deficits led to the fact that the number of dollars owned by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally stopped after a corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.

During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one was created - the Jamaican currency system, which finally legitimized the abandonment of gold backing of currencies.

The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put American manufacturers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, it was possible to actually halve the exchange rate against the Japanese yen, pound and German mark.

In 1992, as a result of the fall of the British pound sterling and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose in price by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotes began to decline again - until 1998, when the dollar weakened significantly against the Japanese yen - from 136 to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the crisis in the markets of developing countries, including the default in Russia.

1999-2001 - a period of renewed strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which lowered interest rates to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.

The most important event for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of the single European currency, into which the central banks of many creditor countries of the United States transferred part of their reserves.

For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted in the range of 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.

Despite competition with the euro, today the United States currency occupies a leading place in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base one for payments through payment systems using plastic cards outside the European Union zone, where the euro predominates.

The US dollar is the main currency of the Forex market. Transactions take place through this currency and basic quotes are set.

Experts' opinions regarding the future of the dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that the collapse of the dollar financial system is inevitable in the near future due to the huge foreign debt of the United States, the largest in the world. As of the summer of 2011, it exceeds $14.5 trillion.

On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, almost twice as fast as China, which is in second position. In addition, the high dollar exchange rate is facilitated by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in American currency and during crises seek to transfer them into dollars, finding refuge in US debt instruments from the elements of a market economy.