The ratio of the ruble to the Belarusian ruble after redenomination. Denomination of the Belarusian ruble. What do we all need to know now? Belarusians are no strangers to devaluations

At zero o'clock on July 1, 2016, the Belarusian ruble lost four zeros: the redenomination of the national currency announced by the president in November 2015 took place.

The denomination became the third in the history of sovereign Belarus and the largest in comparison with the others. Now the new Belarusian ruble is equal to ten thousand rubles in monetary units of 2000, and for the first time coins of various denominations will appear in the wallets of Belarusians - both rubles (1 and 2 rubles) and kopecks.

Where did the Belarusian ruble come from?

The name "Belarusian Ruble" was adopted after Belarus abandoned the Soviet ruble in the early 1990s. Then a number of public figures proposed taking the word “thaler” as the name of the new currency, but the Supreme Council did not approve this initiative.

At the beginning of 1992, during the collapse of the all-Soviet monetary system, a coupon system was introduced in Belarus, then the coupons were replaced by payment notes of the National Bank. The official exchange rate was one payment ticket for 10 Soviet rubles.

The withdrawal of Soviet rubles from circulation began at the end of July 1993, and the Belarusian ruble became the only legal tender in the country.

History of denominations

Initially, in 1992-1994, the Belarusian ruble was introduced in the ratio of 1 Belarusian ruble (issued in 1992) for 10 Soviet rubles.

Banknote of Belarus in denomination of two hundred rubles

On January 1, 2000, another redenomination of the ruble was carried out in Belarus (1000 times), designed, among other things, to stabilize the national currency.

Thus, on July 1, the third denomination of the Belarusian currency took place - ten thousand times. In total, since 1994, in just over twenty years, the Belarusian ruble has lost a total of eight zeros.

What did Belarusians dream about?

Over the long period of the National Bank and the government’s struggle against inflation, which, along with maintaining the ruble exchange rate, has always been a priority for the Belarusian authorities, the citizens of the country have become accustomed to the fact that this struggle does not always result in victories.

Against the background of positive changes in the economy and tax sphere (reduction of VAT from 20% to 18% and some other taxes), from the beginning of 2004 to the end of 2008, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar and the Russian ruble remained virtually unchanged. During 2005, there was a constant increase in bank deposits in national currency. Inflation has been steadily declining for some time - from 34.8% in 2002 to 6.6% in 2006. During this time, the official exchange rate was completely equal to the shadow one, this led to the disappearance of the shadow foreign exchange market.

In 2009, Belarus received the first tranche of a three-billion loan from the IMF, the last tranche came in March 2010. Thus, the state had something to spend, especially since 2010 was the year of the presidential elections. Throughout 2010, which many remembered as the most stable year, the authorities stimulated domestic demand, loans for housing and consumer needs were cheap, as was money for the real sector. All this happened against the backdrop of the consequences of the first wave of the global financial crisis, and the national consequences were not long in coming.

The Belarusian authorities expected that the “bunny” would become fully convertible in 2010; inflation at the end of this year amounted to a record 3.1% for the country.

However, the financial crisis of 2011 shattered the rosy expectations of the Belarusian authorities.

Belarusians are no strangers to devaluations

The Belarusian ruble experienced its first one-time devaluation in 2009. Then, according to the requirements of the IMF, the National Bank moved to pegging the exchange rate to the dollar, while simultaneously devaluing the “bunny” by 20% in relation to the US currency. Thus, the dollar exchange rate was set at 2,650 rubles, the euro - 3,703 rubles, the Russian ruble - 90.16 Belarusian rubles per Russian ruble.

The Belarusian crisis unfolded in full force by March 2011.

On May 24, 2011, the National Bank had to devalue the Belarusian ruble again - by approximately 56%. The dollar began to cost 4930 rubles.

In October 2011, the Belarusian authorities were forced to switch to a market exchange rate mechanism: the ruble exchange rate began to be determined based on the results of trading on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange.

With the arrival of a single equilibrium exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble on October 20, 2011, the national currency exchange rate fell by 52%, which actually meant a repeated devaluation for the period from May 24, 2011. The dollar began to cost 8,680 rubles.

In general, in 2011, inflation reached 108.7%, the refinancing rate increased from 10% to 45% per annum.

During 2012-2014, the Belarusian ruble weakened against the dollar by no more than 10 rubles per day. In December 2014, following the rapid fall of the Russian ruble, the exchange rate of the dollar and euro against the Belarusian ruble began to rise in exchange offices, while the rate set by the National Bank practically did not grow.

By December 19, the minimum exchange rate for selling dollars to the population in Minsk increased to 11.5 thousand rubles, with the official rate being 10,890 rubles.

On the afternoon of December 19, the National Bank introduced a “temporary” commission of 30% on the sale of currency to the population. Ten days later, the commission was reduced to 20%, and the Belarusian ruble was simultaneously devalued by 7%.

In 2014, the overall devaluation was 24.7%.

The beginning of January 2015 is remembered by Belarusians as a time of acute instability in the foreign exchange market. The National Bank carried out another devaluation of the ruble on January 5, lowering the exchange rate by another 7.1% and at the same time reducing the commission to 10%. On January 8, the rate decreased by another 7.5%, and the commission was abolished completely.

On January 9, the National Bank devalued the ruble by another 2.18% and resumed using the mechanism of pegging the ruble exchange rate to a basket of foreign currencies, while simultaneously changing the structure of the currency basket.

In general, in January 2015 the devaluation amounted to 29.4%.

Pick raisins out of a bun

Belarusians love their money, no matter what surprises their circulation may turn out to be. In no other country in the world is the national currency called so affectionately - “bunny”. Dollars and euros for Belarusians are more a means of investment than a source of pride.

Citizens of the country collect and remember interesting facts about their money.

Sputnik remembers them too.

The image of the brown hare for the first Belarusian monetary unit was taken from the book “Beasts and Birds of Our Country,” which was published in 1957. Therefore, the new 1 ruble banknote immediately received the popular name “bunny”, which later spread to all Belarusian money. In 1975, the same brown hare decorated a box of matches from the Belovezhskaya Pushcha souvenir series.
on the 50 ruble banknote of 1992 there is a picture of a baribal bear, which has never been found in Belarus
the most expensive Belarusian banknote was sold for 90,000 Russian rubles (about three thousand dollars). This price was paid at auction for a 5,000 ruble banknote of the 2000 model, AG series.
A peculiar case of bilingualism is represented by the 500 ruble banknote of the 1992 model. The service inscriptions on the banknote are made in the Belarusian language. The front side of the banknote depicts Victory Square in Minsk along with the first two words of the slogan in Russian “The feat of the people is immortal”, laid out on one of the semicircular buildings framing the square and being one of the calling cards of Minsk
Another example of bilingualism on Belarusian money is the 50,000 ruble banknotes of the 2000 model and the 2010 modification. On the reverse side of the bill in the microtext, instead of the inscription “MIR’S CASTLE”, it is written “MIR’S CASTLE”, that is, a spelling error was made. The National Bank explained this as one of the protections against counterfeiting and called such an inscription a “graphic trap”
the drawing of the building depicted on the 10-ruble banknote of the 2000 model is signed as the National Library, although it has not been such since 2006
the symbol Br, which was used to represent the Belarusian ruble, by the time of its introduction was already used to denote the currency of Ethiopia, called the Birr
On the 2000 100,000 ruble banknote, the reverse depicts a reproduction of Napoleon Orda's painting "Nesvizh Castle". At first, the castle on the banknote was depicted with Orthodox crosses on the roof of the castle, although the original painting by Napoleon Orda depicted ancestral eagles. After bonuses pointed out the inaccuracy, the National Bank corrected the error.

More recently, literally in July last year, another redenomination of the ruble took place in the Republic of Belarus. It is worth noting that she was not the only one, because after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the denomination was carried out 4 times. The latest monetary reform has significantly simplified the payment system in Belarus, because before it it was almost impossible to comfortably use monetary units. Let us answer the question why the denomination of money occurred in Belarus in 2016, its causes and consequences.

What is the purpose of denomination?

If we say in simple words what denomination is, then in fact it is just a change in the nominal value of the national currency. This procedure is used to facilitate the settlement system, as well as to stabilize the economic situation within the state after an economic crisis or hyperinflation.

If we talk about the reasons for denomination in general, then when it is carried out, the ratio of money changes, in this case in Belarus it changed 1 to 10,000, and in Russia in 1998, the nominal value of the national currency decreased by 1000. Accordingly, after these events, the entire cost of goods and services also decreased by 10,000 times. Why is a regular denomination needed:

to establish the national currency in relation to the world one;
identify hidden incomes of the population;
simplify the payment system;
reduce the cost of issuing new banknotes.

Note that in most cases, monetary reforms are carried out during a crisis or after hyperinflation in order to restore the domestic economy.

Historical reference

As mentioned earlier, denomination was carried out in the Republic of Belarus more than once, and this was only after the collapse of the USSR. The first monetary reform was carried out in 1992, when 1 zero disappeared from the nominal value of the national currency. At that time, Belarusian rubles had an original design, because they were decorated with images of animals, and people called them “bunnies.”

The second monetary reform was not long in coming, and was carried out 2 years after the first, then another zero disappeared from the national currency. But at that time, after leaving the USSR, Belarus gained independence and never carried out economic reforms, which led to inflation, so by the beginning of the new century, the need arose again to redenominate the currency, then the ratio was 1 to 1000.

The last denomination of the Belarusian ruble in 2016, as mentioned earlier, banknotes became 10,000 times smaller. One only has to think about the fact that before the reform, there were bills of 2 and 5 million Belarusian rubles in circulation on the territory of the state, and if translated into modern money, then these are 200 and 500 rubles, respectively.

Please note that today the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble against the Russian ruble is 1 to 30.57, and the Belarusian ruble to the Russian ruble before the redenomination was approximately 0.003057 to 1.

Reasons for currency reform

Undoubtedly, the main reason for the redenomination, including in Belarus, is the rapid growth of inflation in the country. Although the government of the country explains the reform by saying that the need to reduce the number of zeros on banknotes is due to the fact that they are extremely inconvenient to handle. In general, the denomination, as the government promises, will not affect the purchasing power of goods and services and will not harm the well-being of the citizens of the republic.

Currency of Belarus before and after denomination

But it is also worth noting that inflation also occurs here, which, in essence, is associated with economic stagnation and the need to make internal changes. Although, according to President Lukashenko himself, the country’s economy is stable and the renewal of the national currency will not lead to devaluation, which means that the residents of the state have nothing to fear.

Please note that monetary reform in Belarus is of a technical nature and will not affect purchasing power in any way.

Progress of reform

The order on the denomination of the official currency of the Republic of Belarus was signed by the President of the Republic on November 4, 2015, and the reform itself began on July 1, 2016. To completely remove old banknotes from circulation, approximately six months have been allocated until the end of 2016. Money on the territory of Belarus was withdrawn gradually, that is, citizens could pay with both old and new banknotes, and the remaining savings could be exchanged at the bank.

The peculiarities of this reform are that before it was carried out, only paper bills would have been in circulation. And today residents of Belarus have the opportunity to use coins in denominations of 10, 20, 50 kopecks, 1 and 2 rubles. Among paper banknotes, banknotes in denominations of 5,10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 rubles today decorate the cities of Belarus.

It is noteworthy that the currency reform has been planned since 2009. It was then that the development of the design of new banknotes began. The official version of the denomination appeared in 2014, it was voiced by President Lukashenko during an interview with Belarusian journalists.

Consequences of the reform

The denomination in Belarus in 2016 did not bring any negative consequences for the population. First of all, it should be noted that this monetary reform was indeed necessary primarily for the common population. In addition, accountants and financial workers received great benefits from it. In addition, President Lukashenko himself promised to “tear off the head of everyone who raises prices for goods,” which means that the population of Belarus only benefits from the reform.

Let's summarize that the monetary reform in Belarus is just changes that are of a technical nature and are not related to the internal economic crisis, although the inflation rate in the country exceeds acceptable limits and amounts to 15-18% per year. In any case, the reduction of zeros in the denomination of the monetary unit has made life much easier for Belarusians. After all, just imagine, in order to make any major purchase, residents of the country literally had to carry a bag with money with them, because, as mentioned earlier, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble to the ruble before the redenomination was 0.003057 to 1.

The denomination of the Belarusian ruble is scheduled for July 1, 2016 in Belarus. The order on this was signed on November 4, 2015 and is contained in Presidential Decree No. 450 “On the denomination of the official monetary unit of the Republic of Belarus.” On this day, banknotes of a new type (2009) will be put into circulation. Along with the new money, the old rubles will be in circulation until December 31, 2019.

What is the essence of the denomination?

At its core, denomination is a purely technical operation. This is how it mainly differs from a full-fledged monetary reform. In simple words, old banknotes are replaced with new ones. This is due to a certain convenience and the reduction of zeros on banknotes. As for the general characteristics, during denomination there is a reduction in the money supply. The economic foundations of the state, as a rule, are not affected. The main goal of the denomination process is to simplify and stabilize the state's monetary system.

What is remarkable about the denomination of the Belarusian ruble in 2016?

The current denomination in the history of sovereign Belarus is the third. Its main feature is the largest reduction of zeros (three at once) and the maximum approximation of the denomination to the main convertible foreign currencies (US dollar and euro). So, 10,000 Belarusian rubles of the 2000 model will be equal to 1 ruble of the 2009 model. One new ruble is equal to 100 kopecks. In addition, metal coins are being introduced in the country for the first time since independence.
Preparations for the denomination took a long time. The development of a new version of the Belarusian ruble began back in 2008; the banknotes themselves were printed a year later. Due to the fact that a large-scale global economic crisis occurred in 2009, it was decided to postpone the renewal of the national currency until better times. All this time, rubles ready for circulation were in the vault of the National Bank of the country.

What are the features of the new version of the Belarusian ruble, model 2009?

Firstly, the already printed banknotes bear the signature of the former Chairman of the Board of the National Bank of Belarus P.P. Prokopovich, who currently does not hold this position. The second remarkable fact, which is criticized by many linguists, is the presence on the fifty-ruble banknote of the inscription “pyatsdzesyat”, which does not correspond to the current spelling rules of the Belarusian orthography. Instead of "e" there should be the letter "i". This rule is specified in the law of the Republic of Belarus dated July 23, 2008 No. 420-Z “On the rules of Belarusian spelling and punctuation.”

How long has the denomination been planned?

The country's authorities have been hatching long-standing plans to denominate the national currency for quite some time. Actual confirmation of this is the indication of the year the banknote sample was developed - 2009. Alexander Lukashenko first voiced the idea of denomination in 2014, answering questions from Belarusian journalists. The President also said that technically everything is ready to update the national currency and the process can be launched at any time. At the same time, the head of state noted that for a calm and systematic denomination, several conditions must be present: the absence of sudden changes in exchange rate differences, as well as maximum protection of the national economy from the influence of global processes.
What is noteworthy is that Lukashenko assured the population that there is no need to fear devaluation during the denomination. The country’s economy is stable and nothing can provoke it into negative consequences after the formal renewal of the Belarusian ruble.

Why is denomination carried out?

It is believed that the new Belarusian ruble will become a “stronger” national currency in comparison with the main convertible foreign currencies. Despite the fact that citizens of Belarus, unlike foreigners, have long been accustomed to a large number of zeros, it is expected that it will become easier to pay with the new banknotes. Moreover, both for individuals and for other entities. The only concern some people have is the introduction of coins into circulation, which can be lost out of habit. In addition, the wallets of most Belarusians are not suitable for storing them. At the same time, the listed “inconveniences” are certainly temporary. For the state, denomination is beneficial in that government expenses for maintaining cash transactions will be reduced.

An important feature of the redenomination is the fact that the process in no way affects the purchasing power of the Belarusian ruble. The current exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble without zeros. Thus, the ratio of the Belarusian ruble to the dollar will be approximately 2 to 1.

What period does the denomination cover?

As stated above, the denomination of the Belarusian ruble is officially scheduled for July 1, 2016. The main process of exchanging old banknotes for new ones will take place until December 31 of the current year. Further, for three years, until December 31, 2019, the Belarusian ruble of the 2000 model will be mandatory accepted for payment by all institutions and entities. After this, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus will accept previous money for another 2 years - until December 31, 2021.

How will banks work on redenomination day, July 1?

The National Bank has made a decision that allows banks not to serve clients on the day of denomination and the first day after. This decision is justified by the fact that banks need to reconfigure the software and recalculate customer accounts. Also, on the day of denomination, the automated interbank settlement system will not work.
The main difficulty for bank clients on July 1 and 2 will be the inability to transfer funds from one bank to another.
The regulator noted that difficulties may arise with other operations: settlements using payment cards, accepting loan payments, etc.

What will the new money look like?

The general theme of the new banknotes is “Maya Krajina - Belarus”. Each banknote corresponds to a specific region of the country and separately to Minsk. The relationship between denomination and area is presented in alphabetical order. Thus, the image of a banknote with a face value of 5 rubles is dedicated to the Brest region, 10 rubles - to the Vitebsk region, 20 rubles - to the Gomel region, 50 rubles - to the Grodno region, 100 rubles - to the Minsk region, 200 rubles - to the Mogilev region, 500 rubles - to Minsk.

As for the coins, the State Emblem of the Republic of Belarus will be depicted on the front side (obverse), and the digital denomination of the coin will be depicted on the reverse side (reverse).

How will prices be formed after the redenomination?

Prices and services from July 1, 2016 will be formed on a scale of 1:10,000. As a clear example of pricing, we can cite a product whose cost before denomination was 300,000 rubles. After the financial transaction, the product will cost 30 rubles.
To make it easier for consumers to adapt to the new money circulation, from July 1 to December 31, 2016, all business entities are required to indicate two prices on the price tag: new and old. Some retail chains and other business entities began doing this on April 1, 2016.
What is noteworthy is that when recalculating salaries, pensions, benefits, institutions and organizations will adhere to a similar principle of indicating prices.

What will the new price tags look like?

From April 1, on the recommendation of the Ministry of Trade, new price tags began to appear in stores indicating the price of goods in two forms: current and after denomination. So, on the price tag next to the current value, the “new” value after denomination is indicated. One of the first to make changes was the Radziwillovsky grocery store, which is located in the Stolitsa shopping center. Other popular retail chains in Minsk and other cities followed his example.

At the beginning of November 2015, the President of the Republic of Belarus signed a law on the redenomination of the official banknote in the summer of 2016. This entire denomination in Belarus has become the largest, and the news about the change of banknotes is one of the loudest in recent times. What led to the depreciation of the Belarusian currency and what will happen after the redenomination?

and why is it needed

Denomination is an economic procedure that is carried out with the aim of changing the nominal value of the national currency in order to stabilize money circulation after hyperinflation and simplify the payment procedure.

What will happen after the denomination in Belarus? During the procedure, old banknotes are exchanged for new ones, usually of lower value (face value), but with the same purchasing power. The denomination provides for the gradual withdrawal of the old currency from circulation. If this happens over several weeks, then most often not the entire money supply is exchanged, which causes additional problems associated with the subsequent inability to exchange currency and loss of funds. If several years are allotted for the procedure, when old banknotes circulate on a par with new ones, and currency can be freely exchanged for new money, then the process occurs, albeit slower, but more harmoniously and stably.

During denomination, salaries, tariffs, the cost of food and services provided, scholarships, pensions and other social benefits are recalculated. The state gets rid of excess money supply, which allows:

further reduce the costs of issuing new banknotes of larger and larger denominations;
simplify all calculations: both daily household expenses and monthly income of the population, as well as calculations at the state or international level;
identify hidden incomes of the population, since in order to avoid financial losses, all savings are exchanged, and non-cash funds are transferred into cash;
strengthen the national currency in relation to the banknotes of foreign countries.

Denomination is usually carried out after hyperinflation. In other cases, the procedure can undermine the stability of the country’s economy and negatively affect the psychological state of the population. In addition, when denomination is carried out “not according to indications,” purchasing power suffers.

In simple words about denomination

What is this? Simply put, denomination in any country in the world (including denomination in Belarus) is a process when a certain number of zeros are “removed” from a currency, depending on the scale of previous hyperinflation, that is, a sharp and significant depreciation of money.

What will happen to prices and tariffs? In connection with the procedure, all prices and payments (salaries, tariffs, social benefits, scholarships) are recalculated to new money without changes.

Why is denomination needed? The procedure makes it possible to simplify calculations, increase the status of the national currency and, in the future, reduce government costs for issuing banknotes of ever larger denominations.

Reasons for denomination in Belarus

The denomination in Belarus is carried out due to hyperinflation. The country has been experiencing depreciation of the national currency since independence. From 1992 to 2012, the monetary unit depreciated 237.5 million (!) times, which is almost 12 million percent per year. However, hyperinflation in Belarus is not so “stable”: the highest percentages occurred in the 1990s, and in the 2000s, inflation could be more than fifty percent per year. For comparison: the normal inflation rate is considered to be 3-5% per year.

A rather strange situation has become the reason that every first resident of Belarus can rightfully consider himself a millionaire. One pair of high-quality jeans, for example, cost a little more than one million Belarusian rubles, and the average salary of a doctor was six million.

What will be the denomination in Belarus?

The redenomination in 1994 made it possible to remove only one zero from the national currency in relation to the 1993 banknotes. In 2000, one thousand was exchanged for one ruble, and in 2016 the exchange ratio will be 1 to 10,000.

A similar situation occurred only in one of the union republics. Thus, in 1995, Georgia reduced the value of the national currency by a million times, but it is also far from Belarus, where the ratio of the 2016 ruble to the 1993 currency was 100 million times.

What will happen after the 2016 denomination? The denomination of the ruble in Belarus in 2016 involves “reducing the number of zeros” on banknotes by 4. Thus, if a certain product previously cost 1,000,000 rubles, now its price will be 100.

Timing of the economic procedure

Money denomination in Belarus will be carried out until the end of 2021. The process started on July 1, 2016 and includes the following stages:

until December 31, 2016, money exchange is carried out without restrictions, the old and new currency are in parallel circulation;
until December 31, 2019, exchange will be possible in banks and non-banking organizations;
until December 31, 2021, it will be possible to exchange old banknotes for new ones only at the National Bank.

Until the end of this year (2016), sellers are required to indicate two prices simultaneously: the cost of goods and services before and after denomination.

What will the new banknotes be like?

Each of the new banknotes will be dedicated to one of the six regions of the country and the capital. When developing the design, images of architectural monuments were used. Eight coin denominations have also been prepared. according to the President of the Republic of Belarus, “they are somewhat reminiscent of the euro.”

Even the National Bank indicated in its official statement that the new banknotes are somewhat unusual (“have some features”). Firstly, there will be a spelling error on the fifty-ruble bill, and secondly, P. Prokopovich, who no longer holds this post, will be indicated as the head of the National Bank on the new banknotes. Such confusion resulted from the fact that preparations for a large-scale denomination in Belarus began back in 2008, when part of the banknotes were printed, but the global financial crisis prevented the plan from being carried out. Since then, the republic has managed to carry out a language reform and change the head of the National Bank.

Rate against other currencies

What will happen after the redenomination in Belarus in relation to other currencies? Some online converters currently consider the exchange rate to be the same as before the denomination, others have already “rebuilt”.

At the moment, one ruble costs 33 Russian or 13 hryvnia. One dollar after redenomination in Belarus costs a little less than two rubles, one euro - a little more.

The national currency is the ruble.

New banknotes replaced the old ones in the proportion of one ruble to ten thousand. That is, the new bills “became lighter” by four zeros.

The largest new banknote of 500 rubles corresponds to the old 5 million, and the smallest monetary unit is one kopeck, which corresponds to the old 100 rubles.

In total, from July 1, seven denominations of banknotes were introduced into circulation - 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 rubles, and eight denominations of coins - 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 and 50 kopecks, as well as 1 and 2 rubles .

Old and new money will be in circulation until the end of 2016. In the next three years, old money can be exchanged in banks, and until 2021 - in the National Bank.

This is the third denomination of the Belarusian ruble. In 1994, one zero disappeared from banknotes, and in 2000, three zeros disappeared. The previous bank notes, which are now being exchanged for new rubles, were in circulation for 16 years.

website asked former leaders of the National Bank of Belarus and economists to predict how long the new Belarusian money will last.

Bogdankevich: there won’t be a new denomination for at least 10 years

Stanislav Bogdankevich believes that the coins will not go out of circulation soon.

“Inflation and devaluation will continue, but at a moderate pace, so the penny will continue to function.”, says the ex-head of the National Bank. According to him, another denomination should not be expected in the next 10 years.

“The President set the National Bank the task of preventing hyperinflation. This means that the authorities will not allow money to be released into circulation without collateral. That is, the money supply will be under control. And today we see that this control is taking place, because there is no rapid devaluation; on the contrary, recently the exchange rate has stabilized. Therefore, if the current policy of the National Bank is maintained, I do not expect a big collapse.”, says Bogdankevich.

In the future, according to him, the situation in the economy should improve, and not worsen, if the authorities do not support unprofitable enterprises at the expense of the budget and begin to develop small and medium-sized businesses.

“In the next five years, we will still see a slow and creeping collapse, but then there will be stabilization.”, - Stanislav Bogdankevich believes.

Prokopovich: I won’t live to see coins go out of circulation

Petr Prokopovich also believes that the coins will not go out of circulation soon. “At the very least, people like me definitely won’t survive.”, says the former head of the National Bank.

In the next 25 years, he does not foresee a strong devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, which could lead to the disappearance of coins, and there can be no talk of a new denomination. On the contrary, Prokopovich believes, in the future there is every reason for the growth and development of the Belarusian economy, and therefore a more stable Belarusian ruble.

“There are growth points due to those industries that require not foreign, but Belarusian currency, our materials and raw materials. And we have enough such industries, - emphasized the ex-chairman of the National Bank. - For example, we have more than $7 billion in people’s deposits. If the population actively builds individual housing, then, naturally, it will also spend foreign currency deposits. That is, the situation will improve in terms of strengthening the national currency.".

He calls growth in consumer demand another point of growth: “Not only the world population is growing, but also its standard of living. People are starting to consume more and more, especially our environmentally friendly products, such as milk, vegetables and fruits. We have several times more land per inhabitant than in Europe. There is a basis for developing this direction".

In addition, according to Prokopovich, all conditions have been created in Belarus for more efficient use of forest lands and environmental development, “We have everything we need to have clean air, clean water, sewerage, waste recycling. This does not require currency.".

Ermakova: God grant that the coins move all the time

Nadezhda Ermakova(headed the National Bank in 2011-14) categorically does not want to give forecasts and trusts more in God: “As soon as there is no longer a need for coins, they will go out of circulation. And when there will be no need, no one can say. Life is changing. God grant that they keep going all the time, and that our monetary unit is stable.”.

At the same time, the former head of the National Bank believes that the next denomination will not be carried out during her lifetime: “I think that I won’t be on earth then, but I hope to live to be 100 years old.”(now N. Ermakova is 63 years old).

As a layman, she is not afraid of the appearance of new money, especially coins. Moreover, “everywhere it’s paid by card”. “Everything will slowly settle down, - Nadezhda Ermakova is sure. - We'll get used to everything. Just as we get used to the heat in the summer, so over time we will get used to the new money.”.

Iosub: for adult Belarusians this is the last denomination

Predict the fate of new Belarusian money website financial market experts were also asked.

Senior analyst at forex broker Alpari Vadim Iosub recalled the USSR monetary reform of 1961 and, based on it, put forward the following version: “There is a possibility that the coins introduced on July 1 will not go out of circulation during the lifetime of our generation, and perhaps they will not come out at all. This does not mean that there will be no more denominations in the country. The fact is that there is a certain practice regarding coins. In particular, it was used during the monetary reform in the Soviet Union in 1961. During that reform, the ruble was denominated 10 times, but the coins remained in circulation at their face value. 1 kopeck remains old and 1 kopeck remains new. This is a completely logical approach to using coins. Especially when you consider that minting new coins is a much more expensive undertaking than printing new paper bills.”.

In principle, it is difficult to make any forecasts in the Belarusian economy; it is especially difficult to predict anything for the long term. However, Vadim Iosub tried to determine the period of time during which new denominations do not threaten us: “When will we get a new denomination? It depends on what monetary policy the authorities will pursue. You can pursue a responsible policy following the example of a number of Western countries, which, for example, have never encountered denomination (England, USA), or you can follow the path of Germany in the 30s or Zimbabwe, when literally in one year 10 to 20 extra zeros appeared ».

“Recently, the National Bank has been pursuing a truly responsible policy - this is, firstly. Secondly, supporters of softer policies, which in recent years have provoked inflation and devaluation, now either do not interfere in the policy of the National Bank, or they lack the administrative resources to influence something. If the regulator continues to act as it is now, then I think that this will be the last denomination for adult Belarusians in their lives. I give this money no less than 40 years.”, says Vadim Iosub.

From July 1, the largest Belarusian banknote became the 500-ruble note, which is approximately $250. How much will this bill be worth, say, in four years – on July 1, 2020?

“A forecast for such a distant date can only be made conditionally. Again, much will depend on the policy of the authorities. If the reform path is chosen, I have hope that by July 1, 2020, the Belarusian ruble will not depreciate more than twice its value against the dollar. Accordingly, a 500 ruble banknote in 2020 will cost at least $125.”, says Vadim Iosub.

Alexander Mukha: 1 kopeck will go out of circulation no sooner than in 5 years

Financial analyst at the BusinessForecast.by research group Alexander Mukha notes the following important detail of the current denomination: “This is not just throwing away four zeros, but also a transition to completely new cash. As a result, the denomination, in addition to simplifying calculations, also has an image character.”.

Speaking about the service life of coins, the analyst immediately specifies: “Let's talk about a coin with a minimum denomination - 1 kopeck, which is equal to the old 100 rubles. So, I would predict that the old 100 rubles will go out of circulation (in the absence of denomination) no later than in three years. However, as for 1 kopeck in the form of a coin, here I almost double the service life - it will be in circulation for at least 5 years. Firstly, there is a psychological point - the National Bank is actively trying to convince the population of the demand and relevance of coins, which will definitely affect the duration of their “life”. Secondly, in the current situation there is a tendency for inflation to slow down and, apparently, the authorities will be able to limit annual inflation to single digits already in 2017.”.

The analyst predicts the next denomination no earlier than in 25 years, but at the same time emphasizes the importance of two factors: “The first is the implementation of the authorities’ plans to reach an inflation rate of no more than 5% per year by 2020. The second is the further development of the non-cash payment system. In this case, the development of a non-cash payment system leads to a reduction in the need for cash. Hypothetically, when the share of non-cash transactions approaches 100%, the need for denomination and issuance of new cash will disappear by itself, no matter how many zeros there are on the bills.”.

As for the cost of a 500-ruble bill in four years, Alexander Mukha’s forecast is even more optimistic: “Taking into account the economic indicators that are expected to be reached by 2020, I can outline a corridor of $160-185. However, no matter how the situation develops, I am sure that in 2020 our 500 rubles will definitely be worth more than $100.”.